China and the US stand for no less than 41, 7 % of all world emissions. (c) Photo: Ruy Vasco on Flickr

But why is it so important when Obama will attend the conference? What difference does it make whether he comes this week and meet with negotiators or he comes next week and meets with all the heads of states? Well first all, the US is the second largest CO2 emitter in the world, and the Americans emit more CO2 per head than any other country in the world. Secondly, the last climate deal, the Kyoto protocol, did not lead to satisfactory results from the US (When Kyoto was agreed, the US committed to reducing its emissions by 6%, but instead its carbon dioxide emissions have increased to more than 15% above 1990 levels). So this time it’s absolutely crucial that the US President takes a personal responsibility for whatever is decided in Copenhagen.

Finally, if the Americans decide to commit themselves to ambitious CO2- targets, there’s a good chance that China, the world’s biggest emitter, will be forced to do the same.

US and China: The biggest polluters on earth

According to the United Nations (2006 figures) China and the US stand for no less than 41, 7 % of all world emissions (China 21, 5 % & the US 20, 2%) -  China produced 6,200 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2006, compared with 5,800 million tons for the U.S. The 2 countries are by far the biggest carbon dioxide emitters in the Wold.

A couple of weeks ago Head of the EP-delegation to Copenhagen Mr. Jo Leinen said that it would be a severe setback for world climate protection efforts if the US and China do not commit themselves to specific greenhouse gas reduction goals. “The biggest polluters can turn out to become the biggest failures for climate protection”, he said.

A month ago when two colleagues from our unit interviewed Mr. Leinen, he defined binding CO2-targets for industrialized countries and the financing of climate aid to the developing countries as the two main obstacles to success in Copenhagen.

Will Obama’s participation change anything?

Obama’s decision to attend the UN climate conference in Copenhagen in the last crucial days means that the US President will stand face to face with more than 100 world leaders, who have already confirmed that they will attend the final stage of the conference.  ”Based on his conversations with other leaders and the progress that has already been made… the president believes that continued U.S. leadership can be most productive through his participation at the end of the Copenhagen conference” the White House said in a statement.

But was does it mean in practice? Will there really be a legally binding agreement in Copenhagen? Probably not.  Obama knows that such objectives must be approved by the US Congress, where negotiations on a new American climate law have been postponed until spring 2010.

But what it probably does mean is that Obama doesn’t expect a huge failure in Copenhagen when the world leaders meet to sign some sort of “political agreement”. The prospect that there may actually be concluded a reasonable agreement in Copenhagen is improved! The dynamics surrounding the summit seems to work. With the most important players present in Copenhagen – The United States and China – it would be associated with an enormous loss of prestige for all, if the negotiations end in failure. As the Chair of the UN panel on climate change Dr. Rajendra Pachauri said: “Obama’s revised travel plans represent a very significant development, both in substance and in symbolism, and vastly increases the prospect of a satisfactory agreement in Copenhagen.”